The renewed debate about a sub 2 marathon

This morning, September 28, 2015 the men's marathon world record was broken!  Dennis Kimetto ran 2.02.57 in Berlin. Emmanuel Mutai has in close chase behind and broke the previous record as well. Breaking the 2.03 barrier will renew the discussion about the evolution of the record and whether sub 2 will be seen in our life time.  Let's assume at 41 years I have at least 30 more years in me. Heck, for argument sake, let's say we have 35 years to crack this record.  For sake of his blog, 35 years will be considered our life time.

Here is some math to chew on:
Dennis Kimetto 2:02:57 WR  

2.03 4.42 pace

2.00 4.35 pace 

58.23 2010 half current WR, 58.33 2^nd fastest half (sharing that the 58.23 is not a huge outlier)

(58.30 x 2)+ 6 min = 2.03 

A 6 min spread is pretty good for guys.  Elite and sub-elite women tend to be able to narrow the gap even more down to 4 min.  Mere mortal men are typically 8-12 min with some outlies.

Let's say guys are able to narrow the spread down to 4 min.  

(58.30 x 2) + 4 min = 2.01 4.37 pace. This is a 5 sec a mile drop from the current record.

To get down to sub 2, the half most likely has to get down to at least 58.

(58 x 2) + 4 min =2.00 4.35 pace.  7 sec per mile drop from the current record 

Beyond the math, unlike the women's world record where there are several women in the world running in the 2.19s but none close to the 2.15 Paula Ratcliffe world record, the men have a number of candidates capable of challenging the world record.  Right out of the gate, Chicago Marathon on October 12th has a field that could nail it.  But, to break the WR, realistically, you need world class marathoners as pacers because no one else can run that fast.  You need world class competitors. Emmanuel Mutai for example pushed the pace in Berlin and broke the previous record himself finishing second to Kimetto's world record. You need a course that is flat with few turns and good weather.  Over 26.2 miles, a few extra degrees of humidity, dew point, temps could slow you down 30+ seconds.  A windy day or the sun particularly shiny can slow you down too.


So is it possible that over the next 35 years the marathon world record will drop under 2?  I think so. It's a stretch goal for sure but mankind continues to do extraordinary things as we evolve.  The financial incentives are there making the marathon the darling distance event right now.  Elite competitors are now going for it right from the gun racing the heck out of the distance.  Over 35 years, a whole new generation of runners will come up the ranks with new goals and aspirations.  35 years is enough for man to evolve, specialize, and learn even more about how to push the threshold of man. 

I can't wait to see it unfold and will be cheering for all the incredibly talented racers who dedicate their lives to advancing the record.